A brand-new national poll shows two sitting and former vice presidents, Kamala Harris and JD Vance, sitting atop their parties’ crowded 2028 presidential fields more than two years before voters cast a single primary ballot.
Story Snapshot
- A Focaldata/Financial Times poll of 2,553 U.S. adults, taken October 2-5, 2026, found Harris leading Democrats and Vance leading Republicans.
- Harris polled at 30% among Democrats, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 15% and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%.
- Vance polled at 38% among Republicans, well ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 24% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9%.
- Analysts caution that early nomination polls are unreliable predictors this far out, shaped mostly by name recognition rather than final voter choice.
- Both parties’ fields remain crowded, with contenders like Donald Trump Jr., Robert F. Kennedy, and several senators and governors still testing the waters.
Poll Puts Two Former Running Mates On Top
The Focaldata/Financial Times survey, released Sunday, October 11, pits two people who once shared a national ticket against new rivals in their own parties. Harris, who served as vice president before losing the 2024 race, now leads a Democratic field of more than a dozen names. Vance, the sitting vice president, leads an equally packed Republican field.
On the Democratic side, Harris’s 30% support put her well ahead of Newsom’s 15% and Ocasio-Cortez’s 9%. Other Democrats tested in the poll included Transportation Secretary turned potential candidate Pete Buttigieg and Senator Jon Ossoff, both of whom have shown strength in separate surveys this year.
Vance Holds A Wide Lead Over Rubio And DeSantis
Vance’s 38% support gave him a 14-point edge over Rubio’s 24% in the Republican primary snapshot. DeSantis trailed at 9%, followed by Donald Trump Jr. at 7% and Robert F. Kennedy at 4%. Other Republicans mentioned as possible contenders include Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Television analyst Harry Enten described Vance as the current “heir apparent” for the Republican nomination based on his consistent lead in national polling throughout 2026. Separate surveys, including one from Harvard-Harris in late August, showed Vance ahead of Rubio by as much as 23 points, reinforcing the pattern seen in the newer Focaldata data.
Some Republicans Question Whether The Lead Will Hold
Christie, a longtime Trump critic within the party, predicted last week that President Trump’s sagging approval ratings could eventually hurt Vance’s standing, even as Vance keeps leading the polls. Christie argued that a rough midterm election for Republicans this November could dim Vance’s prospects heading into 2027 and 2028.
Midterm results this fall carry real weight for both parties’ 2028 hopefuls. Ohio’s Senate race, where Republican Jon Husted defends the seat Vance once held, and competitive governor’s races in states like Ohio are being watched closely as early signals of each party’s strength heading into the next presidential cycle.
Why Early Polls Rarely Predict The Final Nominee
Pollsters and political scientists warn that surveys taken this far before voting measure name recognition and current buzz, not a final decision by primary voters. The American Association for Public Opinion Research notes that pre-election polls show what people would choose right now, not what will happen on actual election day.
Academic research backs up that caution. One study of presidential nomination forecasting found that pre-primary polling correctly picked the eventual nominee in 13 of 16 past races, but missed on candidates like Howard Dean in 2004 and Rudy Giuliani in 2008, both of whom led early polls before fading. That track record suggests today’s numbers are a real snapshot, not a settled outcome.
2028 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES — VANCE VS. HARRIS IN 2028? NEW POLL SHOWS A BATTLE OF THE VEEPS pic.twitter.com/tRBCCfLZVK
— Caleb Parke (@calebparke) October 13, 2026
For a country already frustrated with Washington’s gridlock and the sense that political fights never end, this early jockeying is a reminder that the 2028 campaign is already underway, even as voters are still grappling with the policies and leadership of the current administration. Both parties’ fields remain wide open, and the next two years of news, midterm results, and candidate decisions will likely reshape these numbers many times over.
Sources:
youtube.com, usatoday.com, transcripts.cnn.com, nytimes.com, yahoo.com, realclearpolling.com, academic.oup.com, aapor.org
