
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to step back from his independent run and endorse President Donald Trump has sparked new dynamics in several key battleground states. Polls from Tony Fabrizio, a Trump campaign pollster, suggest that Kennedy’s move could provide Trump with a vital edge in areas where the 2024 election is expected to be closely contested.
Before suspending his independent bid, Kennedy was polling at 3% to 5% in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. Fabrizio’s data reveals that most of Kennedy’s supporters are now shifting their allegiance to Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. In Arizona, 53% of RFK Jr.’s backers now support Trump, while just 28% align with Harris.
Although Kennedy’s share of the vote might seem small, these percentages are critical in battleground states, where even a slight shift can alter the overall outcome. In Georgia, Trump gains a net 13% advantage over Harris among former Kennedy voters. In Michigan, the edge is only 2%, but in places like North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Trump secures between 16% and 21% more of Kennedy’s supporters.
RealClearPolitics polling averages show that these battlegrounds are in a dead heat, with Trump and Harris separated by less than 2% in many of these states. With razor-thin margins in states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, RFK Jr.’s endorsement could be the decisive factor in the final outcome. As the race tightens, Kennedy’s influence may prove to be a key piece in determining who wins the White House.