French Regulators Investigate Polymarket After Trump Prediction Success

After Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, accurately predicted President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 election win, the platform has come under scrutiny by French regulators. Known for allowing real-time wagers on political events, Polymarket’s success has prompted France’s National Gaming Authority to examine its operations closely, with officials suggesting a ban might soon follow.

Polymarket’s model uses participant-driven wagers to set market odds, which allowed it to show Trump as the likely winner hours before official media projections. CEO Shane Coplan defended the platform on CNBC, stating that Polymarket’s odds are driven by “peer-to-peer” bets, with market participants setting prices based on real-time information rather than sentiment.

France’s National Gaming Authority is concerned about Polymarket’s operations within its borders, as the platform does not hold a license in France. Authorities have confirmed they have been monitoring the platform since before the election, and recent reports suggest that a ban may soon be imposed to restrict access to Polymarket’s betting services.

Polymarket’s election night success has underscored the potential of prediction markets as an alternative to traditional polling. Billionaire Thomas Peterffy noted that prediction markets offer a unique insight, as people are motivated to bet based on what they believe will happen rather than what they want. This perspective has bolstered the argument for market-based forecasting as a reliable tool.

One French trader gained significant attention by winning approximately $85 million betting on Trump, a notable outcome that has raised questions among European regulators. Large-scale wins like this have drawn scrutiny to the role of high-stakes betting in determining market odds, further fueling regulatory concerns.

As Polymarket faces potential restrictions, its influence in political forecasting remains a topic of debate. While the platform’s success challenges traditional polling methods, its future will likely depend on how it navigates the complex regulatory landscape in Europe and beyond.